ANALYSIS: How Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine is Driving Up the Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner for Americans

As the US gathered around the kitchen table to feast on turkey and endless side dishes in celebration of Thanksgiving on Thursday, the economy was a major topic of discussion – and who was to blame for the rising cost of Thanksgiving dinner.

The cost of a turkey and the traditional fixings for a group of ten dropped 5% in 2024 compared to last year to an average of $58.08, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). 

But that’s still over 8% higher than the 2021 price tag – before Russian President Vladimir Putin launched Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and disrupted global food markets. In 2022, the average cost shot to its highest on record: $64.05.

“The ongoing [influenza] outbreak, Russia’s war on Ukraine, and drought across the United States [are] pushing up the price of Thanksgiving staples,” the US Department of Agriculture said in a 2022 statement about the shocking price tag jump that year. “Grocery price inflation accelerated following Putin’s war in Ukraine,” they explained.

Not much has changed today – in terms of the average cost of living or the culprit behind the price hikes.

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The Ukrainian military regularly reports that Russian forces are resorting to ‘meat assaults,’ sending wounded or poorly trained fighters into battle as cannon fodder.

Although US President-elect Donald Trump ran and won the last presidential election with on a campaign partially based on  “Making America Great Again” by lowering food prices to pre-pandemic levels, leading economists say it’s nearly impossible to roll back the long-term effects of inflation. The cost of Thanksgiving dinner is proof and point.

“Inflation may be going down, but those pre-pandemic prices we remember at the grocery store, car dealerships, and department stores? They’re most likely gone forever,” wrote the economists at Investopedia.

“That’s because prices, on average, are a one-way ticket, generally rising over time, and falling only when something has gone wrong with the economy. Officials at the Federal Reserve who set the nation’s monetary policy are determined to keep it that way.”

The price of Thanksgiving dinner will most likely never dip below $55 again. For American consumers who are still suffering from “sticker shock” over the new cost they are paying today versus a few years ago – there’s no going back. And Russia’s war in Ukraine is partially to blame.

World food prices reached all-time highs in March 2022 thanks to the Russian invasion, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization Food Price Index. 

“Russia’s war in Ukraine has also led to historic disruptions to global agriculture, energy, and fertilizer markets, with food insecurity increasing among millions as a result,” researchers at the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wrote in a February report. Putin used attacks on Ukrainian food infrastructure to wage a warfare of global food insecurity,” CSIS experts concluded. 

“If Ukraine’s depleted agricultural GDP has been a boon to Russia, the rising global food insecurity that has resulted from Russia’s war has also been beneficial: Ukraine’s diminished exports have created openings for Russia, another major global agricultural exporter, to make up for Ukraine’s losses, with Russia using its agricultural exports as a source of soft power,” they wrote. 

“In early 2022, Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and current deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, declared food to be Russia’s ‘silent weapon.’ By August 2023, President Vladimir Putin declared Moscow’s intention to ‘replace Ukrainian grain’ with Russian grain, particularly to ‘needy countries.’” 

Americans can thank Putin for the higher cost of Thanksgiving dinner – this year, and the next.